[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 27 09:52:57 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed declined from 450km/s at 0000UT to be 400km/s 
at the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-2nT. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days as 
the visible solar disk remains spotless. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22111011
      Darwin               2   12110001
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            3   22111011
      Camden               1   11110001
      Canberra             1   11010000
      Hobart               4   22121011
      Casey(Ant)           5   23211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2111 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     5    Quiet 
28 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
29 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind velocity declined over the UT day and is expected 
to continue to do so for the next 24 hours with Quiet conditions 
for 27Jun. An increase in the solar wind speed is expected on 
28Jun due to the arrival of another high speed solar wind stream 
from a geoeffective coronal hole resulting in Unsettled to Active 
conditions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 29Jun. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
28 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
29 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jun     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
28 Jun    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
29 Jun    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Equatorial regions during 
local day. Mostly normal conditions for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions with enhanced MUFs during local night. Disturbed 
conditions for Antarctic regions. MUF depressions of 10%-20% 
are expected for low latitudes during local day for the next 
3 days. Mostly normal conditions for mid latitudes with possible 
depressed periods. Continued disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    97600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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