[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 2 09:39:38 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1019(N28E28) produced a B-class flare. The solar wind
speed stayed around 320 km/s for most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed
slightyl negative (around -2 nT) until around 1000UT and then
stayed close to the normal value until 1800UT and then stayed
positive upto (+4nT) after that. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days. However, the
solar wind stream may get strengthened on 3 and 4 June due to
an anticipated recurrent coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 01100001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 1 01110000
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 3 12111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 4 Quiet
03 Jun 7 Unsettled
04 Jun 7 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels
today. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
levesl on 02 June and then rise to unsettled levels on
03 and 04 June due to an anticipated strengthening in the
solar wind stream due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
03 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
on 01 June although sporadic E-layers and spread F conditions
were also observed at times. HF conditions may show minor
degradations on high and some mid latitude locations on 03
and 04 June due to an anticipated slight rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Near predicted montly values with periods of
enhancements upto 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 3 near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 1 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
04 Jun 1 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations across Aus/NZ regions for the next three
days with the possibility of minor degradations in the Southern
parts of this regions on 03 and 04 June due to an anticipated
slight rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 29200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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