[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 1 09:46:52 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Two spot groups were noted over night at Learmonth Solar Observatory.
Their locations are at N26E42 and at N20E00. The former shows
5 spots and a simple beta magnetic class. The latter showed 2
spots. The SOHO LASCO C3 imagery showed a coronal ejection on
the east limb beginning at approximately 0418UT 31 May, however
is not geo-effective. The Earth directed solar wind speed is
at normal levels. The solar wind is expected to increase on 3
June to just over 500 km/s due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 2 11100121
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 2 10110120
Camden 2 11100111
Canberra 0 00000010
Hobart 0 00100010
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2200 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 2 Quiet
02 Jun 6 Quiet
03 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected for the next two
days and quiet to unsettled conditions expected in three days
time due to an increase in the solar wind speed. Isolated active
levels are possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 57300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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