[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 7 09:44:12 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Low

Flares: NO significant flares.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Region 1024 (S28,W31) appears to have stabilized. GOES 
10 shows a steadily decreasing background xray flux and two B-class 
flares followed by a C-class flare over the last 24 hours. SOHO 
LASCO C3 imagery shows a weak coronal ejection commencing at 1342UT 
6 July on the west limb of the solar disk. It is still in progress 
at the time of this report, however, does not appear to be connected 
to region 1024 and is not expected to be geo-effective. The solar 
wind stepped up to around 400 km/s from approximately 350 km/s and 
is steadily decreasing again. There will be a moderate chance for 
C-class flares over the next three days due the active region 1024. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22100101
      Darwin               3   23100100
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            3   23110001
      Camden               1   11100001
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               2   11101101
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2200 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Jul     4    Quiet 
09 Jul     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expect to be quiet to unsettled 
today due to the slight increase in the solar wind speed. Expect 
it to return to quiet levels on 8-9 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Jul     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values 
08 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values 
09 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values for 
low and mid latitude regions with strong sporadic E over the 
last 24 hours, in particular Vanimo, Cocos Island, and Darwin. 
Some degradations in HF conditions observed on high latitudes 
during this period. These condition are expected to prevail over 
the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    46200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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