[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 4 09:29:55 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 380 to 340 km/s 
during the UT day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained close to the normal value for most 
parts of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be very 
low for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11121001
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           5   12222112
      Learmonth            1   10------
      Camden               2   11020001
      Canberra             0   00020000
      Hobart               2   11121001
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1110 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     3    Quiet 
05 Jul     3    Quiet 
06 Jul     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic-E regions on low and mid latitudes 
and spread-F conditions mainly on mid and high latitudes 
were observed over the last 24 hours. Periods of minor to 
significant degradations in HF conditions were also observed 
mainly on high latitudes. HF conditions are expected to 
remain mostly normal on most locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Jul    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul    -4    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    -4    near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul    -4    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values for 
low and mid latitude regions with strong sporadic E over the 
last 24 hours. Some degradations in HF conditions observed on 
high latitudes during this period. HF conditions are expected 
to remain mostly normal on most locations for the next three 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    68900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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