[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 3 09:29:34 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed fluctuated between 370 and 400 km/s for
most parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained close to the normal
value for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 1 11100000
Camden 1 01100001
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 2 11111101
Casey(Ant) 4 22212101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2210 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 3 Quiet
04 Jul 3 Quiet
05 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic-E regions on low and mid latitudes
and spread-F conditions mainly on mid and high latitudes
were observed over the last 24 hours. Periods of minor to
significant degradations in HF conditions were also observed
mainly on high latitudes. HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal on most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values for
low and mid latitude regions with strong sporadic E over the
last 24 hours. Some degradations in HF conditions observed on
high latitudes during this period. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 76400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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