[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 25 10:39:58 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low, expected to continue. 
Solar wind speeds dropped below 300km/s while the IMF remained 
relatively stable over the day. Solar wind conditions expected 
to remain mostly quiet next 2 days (25-26 Jan) before an expected 
coronal hole high speed wind stream on 27 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100112
      Darwin               3   01100013
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            3   11000113
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               1   11000101
      Casey(Ant)           6   23211122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan     2    Quiet 
26 Jan     2    Quiet 
27 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at all latitudes over 
the UT day (24 Jan), expected to continue next 2 days (25-26 
Jan). A coronal hole wind stream is expected to increase geomagnetic 
activity to Unsettled levels on 27 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jan   -23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Jan   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 Jan   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events again observed throughout 
the region. MUFs were depressed in all regions, particularly 
during the local day. There were some significant local depressions 
during the day in the equatorial region. Continuing Sporadic-E 
events likely from Equatorial to S.Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing 
MUF depressions 25-26 Jan. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    15800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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