[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 24 10:03:00 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low, expected to continue. 
Solar wind speeds remain near 320km/s while the IMF was relatively 
stable over the day. Solar wind conditions expected to remain 
quiet next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111011
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            4   21121102
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Hobart               2   11111001
      Casey(Ant)           8   33321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan     1    Quiet 
25 Jan     1    Quiet 
26 Jan     1    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at all latitudes over 
the UT day (23 Jan), expected to continue next 3 days (24-26 
Jan). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jan   -18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
25 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events again observed throughout 
the region. MUFs were mildly depressed in all regions, particularly 
overnight. There were some significant local depressions during 
the day in the equatorial region. Continuing Sporadic-E events 
likely from Equatorial to S.Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing 
variable HF conditions with mild MUF depressions 24 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    22400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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