[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 6 10:30:12 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar disk has no numbered sunspot regions. The 
current solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s over the last 
24 hours. Similar solar wind speeds are expected over the next 
24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active periods early in the last 24 hours at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 05 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32122212
      Darwin               5   22112212
      Townsville           9   33222222
      Learmonth            6   32112202
      Camden               5   22122111
      Canberra             4   22112102
      Hobart               5   32121101
      Casey(Ant)          12   34331222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   4124 3342     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb     5    Quiet 
07 Feb     5    Quiet 
08 Feb     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        
07 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        
08 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Feb    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Niue MUFs were near predicted to 30% depressed. Vanimo
      MUFs were near predicted with enhancements 11-19 UT.
      Some night spread F observed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin MUFs were mostly near predicted to enhanced
      with 35% depressions 07-08 UT. Cocos Is. MUFs were
      depressed 20-50% and Townsville MUFs were near
      predicted with depressions to 35% 00-08 UT. Night
      spread F observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. Night
      spread F observed. Sporadic E observed at stations
      between 00-20 UT, obscuring the F region at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted to 25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
07 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
08 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 5 February 
and is current for interval 6-8 February. Sporadic E may disrupt 
communications at times, particularly at mid-latitudes. Night
spread F may degrade communications. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:   16.4 p/cc  Temp:    35700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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