[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 10 10:04:31 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. No numbered
active regions on the visible disc although SOHO EIT and STEREO-B
show two weak bright regions on the eastern limb one of which
is showing signs of weak activity. The solar wind speed is slow
(280km/s) and the IMF relatively stable. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 3 11111121
Learmonth 2 11120001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00110000
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 1 Quiet
11 Dec 5 Quiet
12 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours, with some Unsettled conditions at high latitudes early
in the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec -39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec -35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Dec -30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Dec -25 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 9 December
and is current for interval 10-12 December. MUFs were again
consistently depressed across the Australian region over the day,
particularly at mid-low latitudes (N.Aus). HF conditions were
variable with some sporadic E-layer observed at a number of
stations, particularly in the early evening. Ionospheric support
is expected to continue to be depressed for at least the next
three days due to continuing weak solar activity, although there
should be some gradual improvement as solar active regions
currently on the east limb rotate further onto the visible disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 28300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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