[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 9 10:09:47 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Dec             10 Dec             11 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               74/11              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. No numbered 
active regions on the visible disc although SOHO EIT and STEREO-B 
show two weak bright regions emerging on the eastern limb. Solar 
wind speed dropped back to 300km/s and the IMF remained relatively 
stable over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to 
remain at very low levels next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           3   11111112
      Learmonth            1   11101000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11000001
      Casey(Ant)           6   3-221112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Dec     1    Quiet 
10 Dec     3    Quiet 
11 Dec     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours, with some Unsettled conditions at high latitudes early 
in the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Dec   -30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day, 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Dec   -25    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
10 Dec   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
11 Dec   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 7 December 
and is current for interval 8-9 December. MUFs were consistently 
depressed across the Australian region over the day, with stronger 
depressions during the day and at equatorial and low latitudes. 
Sporadic E-layer, blanketing at times, was observed at a number 
of stations, particularly early in the local day. HF frequencies 
are expected to continue at moderately depressed levels for the 
next three days due to continuing weak solar activity, trending 
upwards as solar active regions move onto the visible solar disk. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    66600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list