[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 5 10:47:24 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last 
24 hours with no active regions on the visible disc. Solar wind 
speed remained low in the 230-260 km/s range. Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field IMF Bz component stayed close to normal value 
for most of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to stay mostly 
at quiet levels for the next three days. However some strengthening 
in the solar wind stream may be possible on 05 and/or 06 December 
due to a recurrent pattern. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           2   11110012
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11100000
      Casey(Ant)           5   23221011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec     3    Quiet 
06 Dec     3    Quiet 
07 Dec     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly on quiet levels on 
04 December. Similar conditions are expected for the next three 
days with the possibility of slight enhancements on 05 and 06 
December due to a recurrent pattern. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most locations 
on 04 December with some MUF depressions at low latitudes and 
blanketing by sporadic E layer on low and some mid latitude stations. 
No significant variation to the HF conditions is expected for 
the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Dec   -28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec   -24    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
06 Dec   -24    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
07 Dec   -24    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs and blanketing by sporadic 
E-layer were observed in Aus/NZ regions on 04 December. No 
significant variations in HF conditions is expected for the 
next three days in this region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 252 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    17000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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