[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 2 10:32:29 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed remained low at 280 km/s declining
to 260 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field IMF Bz component was
mildly southwards to -2nT from 00-05UT and 15-21UT, enhancing
weak merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar activity is expected
to stay mostly at Quiet levels for the next three days with no
active regions on the visible disc. A small coronal hole in the
centre of the disc should rotate into geoeffective position in
1 day. The STEREO-B spacecraft has a small active region in it's
view which will reach the visible disc in 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 2 11110011
Townsville 2 21000011
Learmonth 1 11100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 01100001
Casey(Ant) 6 23311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0001 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 5 Quiet
03 Dec 3 Quiet
04 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity mostly at Quiet levels at mid-latitudes.
Some Unsettled periods at polar latitudes due to the mild IMF
Bz southwards 00-05UT and 15-21UT, enhancing weak merging with
the geomagnetic field. Quiet conditions expected early in the
UT day to possibly Unsettled in the next 12-36 hours due to moderately
enhanced solar wind speed from a small coronal hole rotating
towards geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec -5 near predicted monthly values
03 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec -10 about 0 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime depletions were observed across Aus/NZ mid-latitude
regions over the last 24 hours with a greater effect towards
the north. Near equatorial stations observed large variations
despite quiet geomagnetic conditions, with very large pre-noon
and post dusk depletions. Similar conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days with a slight overall increase in frequencies
to near predicted monthly median levels in 12-36 hours if geomagnetic
activity is enhanced by a coronal hole induced high speed solar
wind stream. Extensive blanketing Esb was observed at many stations,
particuliarly at northern Aus and near equatorial. Cocos Is has
Esb at night, Nuie Es in the afternoon, Darwin Esb mid-afternoon,
Townsville Es near 02LT, Brisbane Es near midday and midnight,
Sydney Es and spread F near 04LT, Norfolk Is had Esb 14-18LT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 24400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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