[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 1 10:41:31 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed decreased from 350 to low leves at
270 km/s and the Bz component of IMF was mildly southwards to
-4nT from 06-16UT, enhancing weak merging with the geomagnetic
field. Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels
for the next three days with no active regions on the visible
disc. A small coronal hole in the centre of the disc should rotate
into geoeffective position in 1-2 days. The STEREO-B spacecraft
has a small active region in it's view which will reach the visible
disc in 3-4 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21112011
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 6 2-222122
Learmonth 2 21012001
Canberra 1 11001000
Hobart 1 01002000
Casey(Ant) 7 3-322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 3 Quiet
02 Dec 5 Quiet
03 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity mostly at Quiet levels at mid-latitudes.
Some Unsettled-Active periods at polar latitudes due to the mild
but prolonged IMF Bz southwards 06-16UT. Quiet conditions expected
in the next 24 hours with a slight increase to possibly Unsettled
1-2 days after due slightly enhanced solar wind speed from a
small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec -5 0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
02 Dec -5 near predicted monthly values
03 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ
mid-latitude regions over the last 24 hours with averages slightly
below monthly medians but a small post dusk enhancement at many
stations. Similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days
with a slight overall increase to near predicted monthly median
levels in 1-2 days if geomagnetic activity is enhanced by a coronal
hole induced high speed solar wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 54200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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