[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 09
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 31 09:55:33 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind speed increased
from 360km/s at 0000UT to 488km/s at 1730UT due to the arrival
of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 22322432
Darwin 12 22323432
Townsville 13 32332432
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 11 21322432
Hobart 13 22333432
Casey(Ant) 16 33322443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0110 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Bz ranged between +/-10nT over the UT day
with the increase in solar wind speed due to a geoeffective coronal
hole. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next
2 days with Quiet conditions for 02Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Depressed conditions during
local day for Equatorial regions and during local day and night
for Northern AUS regions. Notable sporadic-E for Equatorial regions.
Disturbed periods for Antarctic regions from the increase in
geomagnetic activity. Similar HF conditions are expected for
mid to low latitudes over the next 24 hours with disturbed periods
for high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for
01Sep-02Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 48500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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