[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind speed was 
to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12110111
      Darwin               2   12100001
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               2   11110111
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug     4    Quiet 
31 Aug     4    Quiet 
01 Sep     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Bz ranged between +/-2nT over the UT day. Quiet conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
31 Aug    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
01 Sep    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours for all regions with only depressed conditions during local 
day for Northern AUS regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days, with possible depressed periods for
Equatorial/Northern AUS regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    68200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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