[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed 
ranged from 420 to a peak of 480 km/s at ~11UT and steadily declined 
to 380 km/sec by th eend of the day. Expect Vsw to be normal 
to slightly elevated over 10 August. IMF had prolonged Bz southwards 
latitudes. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22232011
      Darwin               5   22222011
      Townsville           8   32232122
      Learmonth            7   32232011
      Camden               6   2223200-
      Canberra             5   22232000
      Hobart               6   21232111
      Casey(Ant)           7   22322122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Aug     4    Quiet 
12 Aug     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions continuing 10 August 
due to slightly elevated solar wind speeds Vsw. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Aug    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug     1    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug     1    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug    -2    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Nightime MUF enhancements observed broadly. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    63100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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