[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 9 09:08:13 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed 
ranged from 530 to 430 km/s over the UT day, 8 August, and is 
currently around 440 km/s. Mid way through the UT day, 9 August, 
expect the solar wind to return to elevated levels due to a recurrent 
coronal hole. The solar wind is likely to remain elevated around 
550 km/s on 10 August and then return to normal levels. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22101111
      Darwin               3   22100111
      Townsville           6   22212221
      Learmonth            4   22110211
      Camden               1   22000000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               3   12101111
      Casey(Ant)           6   33211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2212 1233     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Aug     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect quiet to unsettled conditions 9-10 Ausgust due 
to an increase in the solar wind stream speed. The increase in 
wind stream may also cause isolated periods of active geomagnetic 
conditions at high latitudes particular during local night time 
hours. Expect a return to quiet conditions 11 August. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Aug     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug     1    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Aug     1    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug     1    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Hobart observed spread-F during the local night. Es 
was observed at Niue, particularly the early night time hours. 
Antarctic region showed weak to no trace during local night time 
hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    79500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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