[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 2 09:36:18 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
mostly remained between 390 km/s and 420 km/s for most parts
of the UT day today (01 August). The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field mostly stayed close to the
normal value and showed fluctuations in the range of +/-5nT
between 0500 and 1300UT. Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Mostly quiet.
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11212311
Darwin 4 12211211
Townsville 7 12222322
Learmonth 5 11222310
Camden 2 01112200
Canberra 2 00112200
Hobart 4 11112211
Casey(Ant) 9 12322421
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0131 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 5 Quiet
03 Aug 3 Quiet
04 Aug 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet levels for the next 3 days (02 to 04 August).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Sporadic E-layer on low and some mid latitude
locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes were
observed today (01 August). HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations for the next
3 days (02 to 04 August).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to moderate degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 1 near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 2 near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days (02
to 04 August).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 95100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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