[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 1 09:49:12 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
gradually increased from 340 km/s to 420 km/s between 0000UT
and 0800UT and then stayed between 410 and 430 km/s through
the day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
showed fluctuations in the range of +/-5nT between 0500 and
0900UT. Bz stayed close to the normal value through the
remaining parts of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to
remain very low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Mostly quiet with some
unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 12212211
Darwin 5 12222111
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 7 12323201
Camden 4 01212211
Canberra 2 00202101
Hobart 5 11213211
Casey(Ant) 7 13322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 7 Quiet to unsettled
02 Aug 5 Quiet
03 Aug 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Activity may increase to unsettled levels on
01 August with some possibility of isolated active periods
on high latitudes on this day. Activity is expected to
decline to mostly normal levels on 02 and 03 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Sporadic E-layer on low and some mid latitude
locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes were
observed today (31 July). HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal on most locations for the next 3 days
(01 to 03 August) with periods of minor to moderate
degradations on high latitudes on 01 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 0 near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 1 near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with
some possibility of minor degradations in the southern
regions on 01 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 47300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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