[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 15 09:23:13 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
Solar wind speed declined slowly during the past 24 hours
from approximately 360 km/s down to 320 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed slightly negative
(around -2 nT) for most part of the UT day on 14 April. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next
three days. However, some strengthening in the solar wind
stream may be observed on 15 April due to a small coronal hole
rotating into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11121001
Darwin 2 21011001
Townsville 5 22122112
Learmonth 2 11021000
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 00011000
Hobart 1 01011000
Casey(Ant) 5 22222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2220 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 7 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible.
16 Apr 5 Quiet
17 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
on 14 April. Some rise in geomagentic activity level may be
possible on 15 April because of a small coronal hole rotating
into a geoeffective position around this time. Geomagnetic
activity may be expected to decline to mostly quiet levels
on 16 April and then stay at quiet levels on 17 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with some possibility
of minor to mild degradations on high latitude locations on
15 April due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 3 near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 3 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions across Aust/NZ regions are expected
to remain mostly normal during the next three days with some
possibility of minor degradations in the sourthern parts on
15 April due to an expected slight rise in geomagentic activity
levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 49300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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