[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 14 09:43:38 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
Solar wind speeds declined slowly during the past 24 hours
from approximately 450 km/s down to 370 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed close to the normal
value for most part of 13 April. Solar activity is expected to
stay at very low levels for the next three days. However, some
strengthening in the solar wind stream may be observed on 15
April due to a small coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 2 22101001
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart 2 12101000
Casey(Ant) 6 23311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 2221 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 5 Quiet
15 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
16 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
on 13 April. Similar conditions may be expected on 14 April.
Some rise in geomagentic activity level may be possible on
15 April because of a small coronal hole rotating into
geoeffective position around this time. Geomagnetic activity
may be expected to decline to mostly quiet levels on 16 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations for the next three days with
some possibility of minor to mild degradations on high
latitude locations on 15 April due to an expected slight
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 3 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions across Aust/NZ regions are expected
to remain mostly normal during the next three days with some
possibility of minor degradations in the sourthern parts on
15 April due to an expected slight rise in geomagentic activity
levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 79100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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