[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 23 09:55:27 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly very
low. Solar region 1002 (N25W27) emerged during 23 September and
shows new solar cycle magnetic polarity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 22100111
Darwin 2 2201010-
Townsville 5 2221212-
Learmonth 2 220000--
Camden 2 22000001
Canberra 2 22000001
Hobart 2 22000101
Casey(Ant) 8 34211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 5 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 5 Quiet
24 Sep 5 Quiet
25 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained at mostly quite levels
today and similar conditions can be expected for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
25 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions in
MUFs were observed today, primarily at low-equatorial latitudes.
Poor ionisation due to continued very low levels of solar activity
is the likely cause. Similar HF conditions may be expected across
Auz/NZ regions for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 16900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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