[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 22 09:28:48 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on 21 September.
The disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed remained
between around 300 km/s and 320 km/s for most parts of the
UT day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (BZ) remained mostly slightly positive (upto
around +3nT) during the first half and negative (upto around
-6nT) during the second half of the UT day today. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11100212
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth - --------
Camden 1 10000201
Canberra 1 10000201
Hobart 4 10201213
Casey(Ant) 4 22110212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 2200 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 3 Quiet
23 Sep 3 Quiet
24 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained at mostly quite
levels today and similar conditions can be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
23 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs mainly at low and high latitudes were
observed today. Poor ionisation in the ionosphere due to
continued very low levels of solar activity seems to be
the reason for these degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs. Mid-latitude locations were less affected
by this phenomenon where conditions remained relatively closer
to normal. Similar HF conditions may be expected for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Irregular periods of MUF depressions and enhancements,
and degraded HF conditions observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
23 Sep -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Sep -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Degradations in HF conditions and depressions in
MUFs were observed today, especially at low and high latitudes.
Poor ionisation due to continued very low levels of solar
activity seems to be the reason for this. Mid latitudes were
less affected by this phenomenon. Similar HF conditions may
be expected across Auz/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 28200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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