[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 16 09:53:14 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on 15 September.
The disc remains spotless. Due to the anticipated effect of
the coronal hole, the solar wind speed gradually increased
from 400 km/s to over 600 km/s by 1400UT and then slowly
decreased to around 550 km/s by 2330UT. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (BZ) showed
fluctuations between +/-8nT during the first half of the UT
day and remained close to the normal value during the second
half. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low level
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 22334221
Darwin 10 22333222
Townsville 15 23344322
Learmonth 12 32343221
Camden 11 22334221
Canberra 12 22344221
Hobart 11 22334221
Casey(Ant) 12 23433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 61 (Active)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 0010 1134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
17 Sep 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
18 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to the anticipated effect of the high speed
solar wind stream from the recurrent coronal hole, the
geomagnetic field varied from quiet to active levels today.
The activity level is expected to slowly decline over the
next 2 days as the effect of this coronal weakens through
this period. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with
isolated active periods are expected on 16 September and
then gradually decline to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
on 17 September and quiet conditions on 18 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions on
low latitudes and minor to moderate degradations on high
latitudes are possible on 16 September due to an expected
continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
Mostly normal HF conditions on most locations may be expected
on 17 and 18 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of minor to noticable degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 7 near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 8 near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 8 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in
most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with
some possibility of minor degradations in the southern
parts of this region on 16 September due to an expected
continued rise in the geomagnetic activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 18300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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