[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 15 09:49:33 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased sharply at ~18UT from 280
km/s to ~380 km/s and magnitude increased from with +/-5nt to
+/-15nT the onset of the recurrent coronal hole. The hole is
less prominent now in SOHO EIT-195 imagery than last week. Solar
wind may reach 600 km/s. The IMPACT instrument on the spacecraft
STEREO-B shows some extended IMF Bz southward periods upstream
of Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain at the Very Low
level for the next 3 days and the disc remains spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11111123
Darwin 4 2211112-
Townsville 7 2222222-
Learmonth 3 1111102-
Camden 4 10111023
Canberra 4 10111023
Hobart 4 11111023
Casey(Ant) 7 12211124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 17 active
16 Sep 7 Quiet
17 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 12 September
and is current for interval 14-15 September. The geomagnetic
field was quiet for most of the day but increased to Unsettled
at mid/low latitudes and Minor Storm at polar latitudes ~18-19UT.
This is due to solar wind speed increasing sharply at ~18UT from
280 km/s to ~380 km/s and magnitude increased from +/-5nt to
+/-15nT with the onset of the recurrent coronal hole. Vsw is
expected to increase futher and resultant geomagnetic conditions
will be Active for the UT day. The hole is less prominent now
in SOHO EIT-195 imagery than last week so the effects may not
last much more than a day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect disturbances for the next day or two due to increased
geomagnetic activity resulting from a recurrent coronal hole
and associated high speed solar wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 0 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
16 Sep 0 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
17 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
COMMENT: The expected onset of the recurrent coronal hole started
at ~19UT in geomagnetic activity. Expect associated MUF depressions
today and possibly tomorrow although they are not expected to
be very deep. The ionosphere should have recovered by the 17th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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