[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 28 10:18:34 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind is at normal 
levels measured at the ACE spacecraft. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward over the last 
24 hours. A recurrent coronal hole should be geo-effective late 
in the UT day of 28 October. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21200000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           4   2221111-
      Learmonth            1   20100001
      Camden               1   11100000
      Canberra             1   11200000
      Hobart               1   10200000
      Casey(Ant)           5   3--11111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0211 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
30 Oct    16    active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually increase 
over the next three days due to an expected effect of the high 
speed solar wind stream induced by a recurrent coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Oct   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
29 Oct   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
30 Oct   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Mild depressions noted at low to mid latitudes due to 
very low solar activity conditions. Late in the UT day 28 October 
and on 29 and 30 October expect mild depressions at high latitudes 
due to an increase in the solar wind due to a recurrent coronal 
hole. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    86900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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