[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 27 10:46:21 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
levels today as well. The solar wind speed stayed close
to 300 km/s by 0500UT and then rose to around 400 km/s
by 1000UT and stayed approximately at this level for the
remaining part of the UT day. The north-south component
(Bz) of the IMF fluctuated between +/-5nT for most parts
of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to stay at
very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Mostly quiet with some
unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 13222202
Darwin 5 12212202
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 12223302
Camden 5 12212211
Canberra 5 12222201
Hobart 5 13211201
Casey(Ant) 11 34322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
28 Oct 10 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
29 Oct 12 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually
increase over the next three days due to an expected effect
of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal
hole over this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Oct Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUF depressions due to continued very low levels
of solar activitiy were observed on low latitudes today as
well. HF conditions may show minor to moderate degradations
for the next three days due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values with some periods of
depressions during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct -18 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Oct -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Oct -22 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUF depressiosn and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed for the next three days across Aus/NZ regions
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during this
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 14400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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