[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 20 09:58:21 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2
COMMENT: 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22123332
      Darwin               8   12122332
      Townsville          10   2222333-
      Learmonth           10   22123431
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             8   11023332
      Hobart               8   11123331
      Casey(Ant)          11   33322322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct     5    Quiet 
21 Oct     5    Quiet 
22 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity remains at nominal levels. The Bz 
component of the IMF showed moderate fluctuations about neutral 
over the UT day. There was a sustained period of mild to moderate 
southward bias over the second half of the UT day resulting in 
unsettled geomagnetic conditions at all latitudes. Expect continuing 
mostly quiet conditions next three days with the chance of isolated 
unsettled intervals. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
21 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
22 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed most low latitude stations 
due to low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Oct   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
21 Oct   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
22 Oct   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions 
as a result of weak ionisation due to low solar activity. Mild 
depressions extending at times to central Aus regions. S
Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions mostly near normal. Expect similar 
ionospheric conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 284 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    10300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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