[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 19 10:13:21 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
levels today as well. The solar wind speed remained between
280 and 300 km/s and the Bz component of the IMF stayed close
to the normal value for most parts of the UT day today. Solar
activity and solar wind conditions are expected to remain at
nearly similar levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11000012
Darwin 1 10000012
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 1 11000011
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 10000011
Casey(Ant) 4 22111112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 2100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 3 Quiet
20 Oct 3 Quiet
21 Oct 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay at quiet
levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUF depressions on low latitudes continued today
as well. Weak ionospheric ionisation due to continued very
low level of solar activity seems to be the reason for
these depressions. Conditions on mid and high latitudes
remained mostly normal for the day. Simiar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days as no significant
variations in the geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions
are expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed upto around 60% to near predicted monthly
values during the local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Oct -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Oct -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly near
normal levels across most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the
next three days with the possibility of minor to moderate
degradations in conditions and some MUF depressions in the
the northern parts of this region due to weak ionospheric
ionisation due to continued very low levels of solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 13800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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