[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 13 10:38:49 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Very Low. The sunspot AR1005 continues
to move across the disc. AR1005 has beta magnetic configuration
and polarity associated with the new cycle-24, is rated as Stable
with a Low chance of flaring. The first small cycle-24 Type III
radio burst was also observed by IPS Learmonth observatory at
0649-0650UT. The coronal hole related elavated solar wind speed
stabilised at 500-550 km/sec but was choppy. The Bz north-south
component of the IMF was mostly southward during the day, suggesting
sustained merging with the geomagnetic field, but it's magntudie
was low, usually less than 5nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to decline during the 13th UT day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 23333222
Darwin 7 22223212
Townsville 13 3333-2--
Learmonth 12 22333323
Camden 9 22233222
Canberra 10 22333222
Hobart 10 23333212
Casey(Ant) 14 34333223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 3 (Quiet)
Camden 12 (Quiet)
Gnangara 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 37 1234 6752
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 18 Unsettled
14 Oct 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
15 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity declined today from yesterdays
enhancements after the initial impact of the high speed solar
wind (Vsw) stream from a recurrent coronal hole. The Vsw stabilised
at only moderately high levels for the UT day, but the geomagnetic
field only responded with Quiet to Unsettled levels at mid-latitudes.
Polar latitudes were Unsettled to Active or Minor Storm later
in the UT day as the effects of sustained merging with the solar
magnetic field (IMF) took hold. Activity is expected to decline
across the 13th October as the Vsw declines.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect recovery from yesterdays geomagnetic disturbance.
Delayed effects may be observed at equatorial latitudes for a
couple of days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct -12 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
14 Oct -5 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
15 Oct 0 0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 11 October
and is current for interval 12-13 October. Substantial depressions
of 20% observed in HF critical frequencies observed across Aus/NZ
and nearby equatorial regions due to geomagnetic disturbance
from coronal hole high-spedd sola-wind. Expect solar wind speed
and geomag levels to decline over the next two days and the ionosphere
recover to near predicted monthly average. Some extra EUV flux
from sunspot region AR1005 may aid recovery.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list