[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 12 10:41:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low
levels today as well. The previously anticipated coronal
hole effect eventuated about half a day before the expected
time. The solar wind speed gradually increased from 330 km/s
at 0600UT to over 500 km/s by 1200UT today and the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) also turned
south during this period upto around -15nT and stayed mostly
southwards until around 1600UT. Bz then showed fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value and it is currently staying
close to the normal value. Solar wind stream may remain
strengthened on 12 October and for some time on 13 October
as well. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next three days. A new cycle sunspot has been
numbered today as Region 1005 at N26E42.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to major storm.
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 22434432
Darwin 15 12335332
Townsville 16 22434432
Learmonth 18 2243-532
Camden 15 1-334432
Canberra 16 12434432
Hobart 21 12445442
Casey(Ant) 19 33533333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 17 Mostly unsettled to active with some possibility
of isolated minor storm periods.
13 Oct 12 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
14 Oct 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity showed significant enhancements
today due to earlier than expected arrival of the high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. At times the
geomagnetic activity went upto major storm at some high latitude
locations. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced
on 12 and possibly 13 October due to the effect of this coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs were observed on low
latitudes on 11 October, possibly due to a very weak
ionospheric ionisation as the solar activity continued
to remain at very low levels. Minor to moderate degradations
in HF conditions on low and mid latitudes and significant
degradations at high latitudes may be expected on 12 and
13 October due to an anticipated continued enhancement in
geomagnetic activity levels and weak ionospheric ionisation
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct -14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
13 Oct -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and MUF depressions may be observed across Aus/NZ regions
for the next two to three days due to low ionisation in the
ionosphere as the solar activity continues to remain at very
low levels and also due to an expected continued rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on 12 and 13 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 14300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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