[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 30 10:12:11 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. Solar wind speed dropped back
below 400km/s over the UT day. IMF relatively stable. Similar
conditions expected 30 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21221111
Darwin 3 21210101
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 21211202
Camden 3 11220111
Canberra 3 11220101
Hobart 3 12220101
Casey(Ant) 8 3-322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1200 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 2 Quiet
01 Dec 2 Quiet
02 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day (29
Nov) with some isolated Active periods at high latitudes. Expect
Quiet conditions next three days (30 Nov - 02 Dec).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov -46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov -42 depressed 10 - 30%
01 Dec -40 depressed 10 - 30%
02 Dec -35 depressed 10 - 30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 29 November
and is current for interval 30 November to 2 December. Depressed
ionospheric conditions at all latitudes, expected to continue
due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 74600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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