[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 29 10:14:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. A recurrent coronal hole wind
stream is in steady decline with solar wind speeds dropping back
below 450km/s over the UT day. IMF relatively stable. Expect
continuing decline in solar wind speed 29 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22121122
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 21122122
Camden 4 11111122
Canberra 4 22111112
Hobart 4 12111112
Casey(Ant) 8 ---32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3211 2022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 3 Quiet
30 Nov 2 Quiet
01 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day (28
Nov) with some isolated Active periods at high latitudes. Expect
Quiet conditions next three days (29 Nov - 01 Dec).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov -40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov -42 depressed 10 - 30%
30 Nov -45 depressed 10 - 30%
01 Dec -40 depressed 10 - 30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 27 November
and is current for interval 27-29 November. Depressed ionospheric
conditions at all latitudes. Sporadic-E observed at multiple
southern Australian stations overnight. Continuing depressed
ionospheric conditions expected due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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