[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 29 09:51:21 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible disk is presently spotless. A transient
in some of the solar wind parameters observed at approximately
0130UT on 28 May was most likely due to a coronal hole co-rotating
interaction region (CIR). Solar wind speeds have increased since
then and are presently 500-550 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to remain mildly elevated over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 10 32323222
Darwin 8 32312212
Townsville 11 32333222
Learmonth 12 33323322
Camden 8 22323211
Canberra 8 22323221
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 10 32323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1010 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods and storm levels at
high latitudes.
30 May 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods and storm levels at
high latitudes.
31 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods and storm levels at
high latitudes.
COMMENT: A mild coronal hole solar wind stream arrived earlier
than forecast increasing geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels
for low-mid latitudes with isolated active and storm levels at
high latitudes. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected
for the next few days for low-mid latitudes under the influence
of mild coronal hole wind streams. Isolated active and storm
levels are possible for high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with isolated depressions of 5-15% possible at times. Spread-F
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed at times at most stations
across the Aus/NZ region during 28 May and are possible at times
during the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 35500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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