[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 28 09:48:31 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible disk is presently spotless. The eastward
directed CME observed in LASCO imagery late in the UT day of
25 May to 26 May did not appear to be associated with any activity
on the visible disk and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar
wind speeds are expected to increase mildly during 30 May as
a small coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11111222
Darwin 4 11111122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 01112222
Camden 2 01101111
Canberra 1 00101111
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 6 22211222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1112 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 5 Quiet
29 May 5 Quiet
30 May 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for
28-29 May with unsettled and possible isolated active periods
on 30 May as a small coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 10-20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 5-15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with isolated depressions of 5-15% possible at times. Spread-F
conditions were observed at times at most stations across the
Aus/NZ region during 27 May and are possible at times during
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 35000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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