[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 26 09:35:03 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the UT day.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained between +4 and -4 nT for most part of the UT day
today. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22222210
Darwin 5 22212210
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 6 12222310
Camden 4 12221210
Canberra 4 12221210
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 7 22322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 3112 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 7 Quiet
27 May 7 Quiet
28 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally quiet and is expected
to remain quiet over the next three days. Chance of isolated
unsettled periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
27 May Normal Normal Normal
28 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted to enhanced values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 0 near predicted monthly values
27 May 5 near predicted monthly values
28 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed local morning Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ regions.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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