[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 25 09:26:05 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed first gradually increased
from 460 km/s around 0000UT to 570 km/s by around 0700UT
and then gradually decreased to 480 km/s by 2300UT. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained between +4 and -4 nT for most part of the UT
day today. Solar wind stream is expected to continue to
gradually weaken over the next two days. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 9 32233212
Darwin 6 21123211
Townsville 10 32233222
Learmonth 10 32233312
Camden 6 21133201
Canberra 8 31233201
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 12 33323322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2201 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 7 Quiet to unsettled
26 May 6 Quiet
27 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to further
decline for the next two days due to an expected continued
weakening in the solar wind stream. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels
on 25 May and then decline to mostly quiet levels on 26 and
27 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal
27 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be observed at times on high latitude circuits on
25 May. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
26 and 27 May on most locations.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced at times by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
some enhancements and some times noticeable degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 9 near predicted monthly values
26 May 11 near predicted monthly values
27 May 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 497 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list