[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters 
are mildly elevated due to a coronal hole wind stream. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32213111
      Darwin               6   32212111
      Townsville          10   33323122
      Learmonth            7   32313001
      Camden               5   32213000
      Canberra             5   32203000
      Hobart               7   32213111
      Casey(Ant)           9   33323111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   0120 1334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is mildly elevated at ~450 km/s. The 
Bz component of the IMF showed moderate fluctuations of up to 
+/-8 nT during the first half of the UT day resulting in mostly 
unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Activity declined to generally 
quiet levels over the second half of the UT day. Expect quiet 
to unsettled conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 May    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
04 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
05 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions low to mid 
latitudes. Generally weak night-time ionosphere observed S
Aus/Antarctic regions. Disturbed periods possible 03 - 05 May 
mainly at high latitudes in association with elevated 
geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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