[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 2 09:44:01 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. The anticipated coronal 
hole wind stream has not yet eventuated. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12211223
      Darwin               5   22111222
      Townsville           8   22222223
      Learmonth            6   12211223
      Camden               3   11100113
      Canberra             4   11100223
      Hobart               5   11101223
      Casey(Ant)           9   23311223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   1001 1352     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
03 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Following the solar wind shock observed at 30/15UT, 
the geomagnetic field returned to generally quiet conditions 
at low to mid latitudes, with unsettled conditions at high latitudes 
over most of the UT day. The anticipated coronal hole wind stream 
has not yet appeared. After 22UT there was a moderate disturbance 
in the IMF Bz component resulting in unsettled to storm conditions. 
This may be evidence of a gradual solar sector boundary crossing. 
This disturbance is likely to be transitory. Expect unsettled 
conditions on day one due to the current disturbance and possible 
arrival of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. Geomagnetic 
activity should decline days two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable localised enhancemants/disturbances.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 
03 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
04 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions low to mid 
latitudes. Generally weak night-time ionosphere observed S
Aus/Antarctic regions. Disturbed periods possible 02 - 03 May 
mainly at high latitudes in association with elevated 
geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    52400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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