[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 29 10:35:19 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar:  83/24

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Regions 
987(S08W19), 988(S08E06) and 989(S12E35) are all 
C-flare capable. The currently going on coronal hole 
effect continued to keep the solar wind stream strengthened 
as the solar wind speed remained enhanced between 600 
and 650 km/s for most part of the UT day today. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
fields (Bz) stayed slightly (upto -5nT) southward for 
almost the whole day today. Solar wind stream is expected 
to remain strengthened due to the effect of the currently 
geoeffective coronal hole for approximately one more day. 
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very low to 
low levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Moslty unsettled to
active with isolated minor storm periods. 

Estimated Indices 28 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   33444332
      Darwin              13   32433322
      Townsville          18   33444332
      Learmonth           27   33555432
      Camden              19   32454322
      Canberra            20   33454322
      Hobart              19   32454322
      Casey(Ant)          19   3-443342
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             31   6543 3245     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar    15    Unsettled to active 
30 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
31 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained enhanced to unsettled 
to active today with some periods of minor storm conditions 
due to the currently going on coronal hole effect. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain mostly at unsettled to active 
levels on 29 March and then gradually decline to unsettled to 
quiet levels on 30 March and stay at quiet levels on 31 March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in conditions and 
depressions in MUFs may be possible, especially on high 
and some mid latitude locations on 29 March due to an 
anticipated continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Mar    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly value to enhanced by 25%,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted montly value with periods of
      degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    14    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Mar    16    05 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
31 Mar    18    05 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions and minor 
depressions in MUFs may be possible at times on 29 March, 
especially across Southern Aus/NZ regions due to an 
anticipated continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 615 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   266000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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