[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 28 10:37:27 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Regions 987
(S08W06), 988(S08E18) and 989(S12E48) are all C-flare
capable. An isolated M-flare may also be possbile from
region 989. The previously anticipated coronal hole effect
continued today as the solar wind speed remained enhanced
between 550 and 650 km/s for most part of the UT day today.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
fields (Bz) stayed slightly (upto -5nT) southward for almost
the whole day today. Solar wind stream is expected to
remain strengthened due to the effect of the currently
geoeffective coronal hole for at least one more day. Solar
activity is expected to remain mostly at very low to low
levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Mostly unsettled to
active with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 18 33333344
Darwin 16 33333343
Townsville 18 33333344
Learmonth 34 44444555
Camden 16 33333343
Canberra 18 34333343
Hobart 19 33434343
Casey(Ant) 22 44433344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 27 1144 5454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 16 Active to unsettled
29 Mar 10 Unsettled to quiet
30 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 23 March
and is current for interval 25-28 March. Geomagnetic activity
remained enhanced to unsettled to active levels today
with some periods of minor storm conditions due to the
previously anticipated coronal hole effect. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at unsettled
levels on 28 March with isolated active periods and
then gradually decline to unsettled to quiet levels
on 29 March and stay at quiet levels on 30 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be expected, especially on high
and some mid latitude locations on 28 March due to an
anticipated continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
29 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be possible on 28 March, especially
across Southern Aus/NZ regions due to an anticipated continued
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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