[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 14 09:31:06 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity remains low at ~310km/s. Bz ranged between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 1 11000010
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Casey(Ant) 2 11100111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 4 Quiet
15 Jun 4 Quiet
16 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next two days. A coronal
hole is expected to be in geoeffective position bringing Quiet
to Unsettled conditions for 16-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 115% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions with enhanced MUF's again during
local night. Northern AUS/Equatorial regions mostly normal but
with depressed conditions during local day. Isolated enhanced
conditions for Antarctic regions with continued disturbed periods.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days. An increase
in geomagnetic conditions is expected on 16-Jun that may produce
isolated enhanced conditions followed by depressions of 20% for
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 14600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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