[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 13 09:33:30 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days with
the only notable solar region 998 remaining quiet and unchanged
in size and magnetic complexity for the last few days. Solar
wind velocity remains low at ~310km/s. Bz ranged between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 1 11100101
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 2 11111101
Casey(Ant) 3 12111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 4 Quiet
14 Jun 4 Quiet
15 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days as the
solar wind parameters remain low and are not expected to increase
within this forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 90% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions with enhanced MUF's again during
local night. Northern AUS/Equatorial regions mostly normal but
with depressed conditions during local day. Isolated enhanced
conditions for Antarctic regions with continued disturbed periods.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with little
change in the current solar and geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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