[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 12 09:43:53 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
last 24 hours as there is currently no active regions on disc.
Solar wind parameters showed an increase in velocity, density
and temperature with the arrival of the high speed solar wind
stream from the recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased
from 350km/s at 0000UT to be ~475km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) ranged between +/-5nT for most of the UT day, but increased
to 10nT at the time of this report and had few southward excursions.
Solar wind velocity is expected further increase over the next
24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 11223112
Darwin 6 21223112
Townsville 9 22323222
Learmonth 7 11223113
Camden 5 00223112
Canberra 4 00223002
Hobart 4 01123111
Casey(Ant) 6 22222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Camden 10 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1001 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
13 Jul 12 Unsettled
14 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with the arrival of the high speed solar wind
stream from the geoeffective coronal hole in the latter half
of the UT day. Unsettled to Active conditions expected for 12Jul
with possible isolated minor storm periods for mid to high latitudes.
Unsettled conditions expected for 13Jul and Quiet to Unsettled
for 14Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal-fair Fair Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 90% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jul -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jul -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last
24 hours for all regions. Southern AUS/NZ regions had continued
enhanced conditions during local night and Antarctic regions
over most of the UT day. With the continued rise in geomagnetic
activity due to a high speed solar wind stream arrival over the
next 24 hours, MUF depressions of 10%-20% possible for Northern
AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric conditions
for Antarctic regions for 12Jul-14Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 66300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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