[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 11 09:33:42 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
last 24 hours as there is currently no active regions on disc.
The solar wind speed remained unchanged at ~330km/s. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between
+/-5nT over the UT day. An expected increase in the solar wind
parameters is due in the next 24 hours with the arrival of a
high speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11011011
Townsville 6 21222222
Learmonth 5 22211121
Camden 2 10011002
Canberra 1 10011000
Hobart 1 00011100
Casey(Ant) 3 11111121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 7 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1101 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
13 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. The high speed solar wind stream from the geoeffective
coronal hole is expected to arrive in the next 24-36 hours which
will bring Unsettled to Active conditions for 11Jul-12Jul, with
possible isolated minor storm periods for mid to high latitudes.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 13Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
12 Jul -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jul -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last
24 hours. Northern AUS regions experienced depressed MUFs during
local day. Southern AUS/NZ regions had continued enhanced conditions
during local night. Mostly normal conditions for Antarctic regions
with enhancements over the UT day. Similar conditions for each
region are expected for the next 24 hours. An increase in geomagnetic
activity is expected in the next 24 hours which will affect MUF's,
with depressions ~20% possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions and
disturbed ionospheric conditions for Antarctic regions for
12Jul-13Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 39600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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