[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 31 10:16:14 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Spot group at S08E42 was numbered AR 10982 overnight
and presently shows 4 spots. No significant activity is expected
from this region at this time. The solar wind speed has decreased
to 340 km/s. Expect the solar wind to increase to about 600 km/s
on 1 February due to a coronal hole effects. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +4 and -2 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Darwin 2 21111001
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 3 22111002
Camden 3 22111101
Canberra 2 22010000
Hobart 4 12311011
Casey(Ant) 6 3-222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1212 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 4 Quiet
01 Feb 18 active
02 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect unsettle to active level of geomagnetic activity
on 1-2 February due to a high speed solar wind stream effects
with a possibility of isolated minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 10% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 12 near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 12 near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E was noted at Norfolk Is,, Sydney and Hobart
during the day and twilight hours. Nuie, Darwin, and Brisbane
showed variable Es most of the UT day. Macquarie Is. and Christchurch
showed occassional Es thoughout the UT day and Learmonth showed
Es during the local night time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 80400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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