[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 30 10:14:16 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: There is a spot group at S09E60 with three spots, no
other spots noted. The solar wind speed is presently around 400
km/s and is expected to remain near this speed for the next 2
days. Expect the solar wind to increase to about 600 km/s on
1 February due to a coronal hole effects. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 23222111
Darwin 4 22121101
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 5 22222101
Camden 6 13222111
Canberra 4 13221001
Hobart 4 13212001
Casey(Ant) 11 34332112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1101 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 4 Quiet
31 Jan 4 Quiet
01 Feb 18 active
COMMENT: Expect unsettle to active level of geomagnetic activity
on 1 February due to a high speed solar wind stream effects with
a possibility of isolated minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 10% during the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Regionsed
Near predicted monthly values during the day,
Depressed by 15% during the night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 12 near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E was noted at Macquarie Is., Hobart, and
Christchurch particularly during early morning hours.
Sporadic E was also notice at in the Northern to Mid regions
of Australia particularly during the local day and evening hours.
Expect these trend to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 65500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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