[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 16 10:29:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar disc currently spotless and solar activity expected
to be very low. Solar disc dominated by a coronal hole of extended
longitude. Now geoeffective and causing enhanced solar wind speeds
(Vsw). However the hole is weakening earlier than expected and
Vsw decreased from 750 to 650km/sec over the UT day. The solar
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component observed by
ACE spacecraft fluctuated north-south (-4 to+4nT) with no extended
Bz negative periods to enhance geomagnetic merging. However the
STEREO spacecraft observed periods (02-04, 18-00UT) of By with
magnitude greater than Bz which pulled the IMF Bz/By clock angle
below 45deg to allow merging with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 22323322
Darwin 7 22222312
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 12 32333322
Camden 9 22223322
Canberra 10 22323322
Hobart 10 22323322
Casey(Ant) 15 4--43222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 3334 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 12 Unsettled
17 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field Quiet to Unsettled over the 24 hrs
at mid and equatorial latitudes. Quieter than expected due to
earlier decrease in coronal hole enhanced Vsw than expected.
High-latitudes were at Unsettled to Minor Storm levels due to
enhanced Vsw from coronal hole and extended geomag-IMF merging
from IMF Bz/By clock angle exceeding 45 deg due to high By values
(02-04, 18-00UT).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 0 Below monthly values by (day/night); 4/8% for
northern Australia; 3/6% for southern Australia;
4/9% for equatorial; 2/3% for Antarctica.
17 Jan 5 Below monthly values by (day/night); 3/5% for
northern Australia; 2/4% for southern Australia;
3/5% for equatorial; 1/2% for Antarctica.
18 Jan 5 Below monthly values by (day/night); 3/5% for
northern Australia; 2/4% for southern Australia;
3/5% for equatorial; 1/2% for Antarctica.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 660 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 230000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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