[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 15 10:44:58 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar disc currently spotless. Disc dominated by a deep 
coronal hole of extended longitude. This is now geoeffective 
and expected to cause enhanced solar wind speeds (Vsw) for a 
number of days. Vsw increased from 550 to high ~700km/sec over 
the UT day. There were Vsw spikes near 08UT and 14UT associated 
with changes in the phi angle. The solar Interplanetary Magnetic 
Field (IMF) Bz component observed by ACE spacecraft fluctuated 
north-south with no extended Bz negative periods to enhance
geomagnetic 
merging. However the STEREO spacecraft observed a long period 
(00-18UT) of By with magnitude equal or greater than Bz (-5nT) 
which would pull the IMF Bz/By clock angle below 45deg and allow 
merging with the geomagnetic field. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   33343333
      Darwin              14   32243333
      Townsville          15   23343333
      Learmonth           22   33353443
      Camden              15   23343333
      Canberra            15   23343333
      Hobart              14   23342333
      Casey(Ant)          23   4--43443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            75   (Active)
      Hobart              90   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3221 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan    14    Unsettled to Active 
16 Jan    14    Unsettled to Active 
17 Jan    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field generally quiet to unsettled over 
the 24 hrs at mid and equatorial latitudes but active for ~3hrs 
near 10UT. The active period was ~4 hours after a Vsw step change 
from 550 to 600+km/sec observed at ACE spacecraft. Field at mid-lats 
currently not going above unsettled despite Vsw ~700km/sec for 
10hrs but expect unsettled to possibly active later with sustained 
high Vsw. High-latitudes were at active to storm levels. Probably 
due to enhanced Vsw from coronal hole but also extended geomag-IMF 
merging from IMF Bz/By clock angle exceeding 45 deg due to high 
By values 00-18UT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: In the Australasian sector equatorial latitudes exhibited 
extensive sporadic E (Es), particuarly at night. Much of the 
Es was blanketing the F layer. Es was also prevalent across
mid-latitudes 
but often not blanketing. High latitudes were disturbed due to 
active-storm geomagnetic conditions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jan    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan   -15    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 50% at times expected. 
16 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 30% at times expected. 
17 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 11 January 
and is current for interval 14-15 January. At near equatorial 
latitudes (Townsville, Niue, Vanimo) extensive sporadic E (Es) 
was observed, particuarly at night. Much of the Es was blanketing 
the F layer. Es was also prevalent across mid-latitudes and southern 
latitudes (e.g. Brisbane, Canberra, Norfolk Is) but often not 
blanketing. Antarctic ionosphere was disturbed due to active-storm 
geomagnetic conditions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   206000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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